the "two horse race" bet is intriguing. Using the proposed Lemuroid definition of it being considered a "two horse race" if the 3rd place time is > 1s behind 2nd place. [and generally ignoring that the definition of a >1s gap means there have regularly been 1-horse races where 1st is >1s faster than 2nd]
Out of the last 12 years ('99 through '10) only 2005 & 2009 could be argued as having more than a 2-horse race. And cases where it is a "1-horse" race a couple years it is a different 1-horse race on day 2. (vast majority of the '80s and '90s were 1 or 2 horse races as well under the >1s gap to 2nd/3rd definition)
If tommy were to take the bet that fringe would be one of 2-horses leading the charge it would have been a good bet for each of those years except 1999, (2004 finals if the dq is part of the bet), 2005 finals heats, 2006, 2008, 2009, so recent trends not as good, but basically a 50/50 proposition based on recent past. (and a terrible bet for any year before 1999)
So yeah, betting on a 1 or 2 horse race in mens would make sense - probably be fair somewhere around 7/1 payout if you bet against it happening.
Odds for a specific team being part of top 2 would be interesting.
SDC A/Fringe A would be fairly boring bets based upon the fact that last year is typically a pretty good predictor of this year.
PiKA A, SDC B, Spirit A, SigEp A would be interesting to handicap though.
Oh and I suppose it begs the question, is Lemuroid's bet offer hedging more that this year is an anomaly and is going to be more competitive than usual? or more that he thinks Fringe won't hang in the top 2? (or just trying to get Tommy to put someone money on the table)